July 11, 2009
I love mobile apps. Thanks, Apple, for invigorating the mobile app dev community with a platform and a zeal that has finally tipped the balance toward mobile data services. All the mobile players have now been revving their own toolkits and appstores, and pumping loads of marketing dollars to promote this new era. As a consumer, I think this is great. I’ve never had so much choice (though it is increasingly paired with confusion, so someone’s gotta solve that too).
But what impact does this have on the enterprise? Philippe Winthrop at Strategy Analytics recently blogged on this topic (http://www.enterprisemobilitymatters.com/enterprise_mobility/2009/07/revisiting-the-mobile-app-store.html), pointing out that IT will be dramatically impacted whether we like it or not. And most companies aren’t ready for it.
A few weeks ago, I had a fascinating conversation with a CIO who doesn’t have immediate plans to deploy internal mobile apps beyond email but realizes that in spite of that he needs a mobile apps strategy NOW, not in 12 months. Why? To deal with the proliferation of consumer apps that are (and will be) suddenly appearing on his corporate smartphones.
How many phones will run out of memory? How many apps will crash the phone? How many new backdoors will be created? What types of problems will a smartphone with 30 apps have that one with 3 does not?
His helpdesk is going to get hit hard. And he knows he has to do something about it. He needs a mobile apps strategy. Waiting is not an option. Mobile apps are here to stay. Prepping now means avoiding big support costs and poor user experiences later.
June 24, 2009
I’m not so sure recent mobile phone sales trends are much cause for concern.
According to ABI Research, the worldwide mobile phone industry is in decline, marked by an 11.9% year-over-year slide (http://tinyurl.com/nf6lg9). While there are many ways to interpret this data, the first thing that came to mind was an article I read recently in Forbes indicating that the dramatic slow in new automobile sales this country has experienced isn’t sustainable (http://tinyurl.com/bzznzx): last quarter’s new automobile sales rate, if maintained, would translate to the average car being replaced once every 23.4 years, well north of the 13 year average refresh schedule. I’d be curious to see the same data on cell phone refresh trends, but I’m guessing they’re roughly congruent.
We’ve seen growth industries come out of similar declines with pronounced enthusiasm, and I don’t see any reason to expect trends in this recovery to be much different, but I think there’s an interesting angle on all this if we focus specifically on a narrower segment of the market.
Gartner pins global smartphone sales this quarter at a 12.7% increase year-over-year (http://tinyurl.com/oy6fes), which is rather impressive next to ABI’s greater mobile phone industry analysis. There’s no doubt about it: advancing smartphone growth as a function of the aggregate mobile phone industry is inexorable.
So the real question is: when consumers begin to return to their local mall kiosks en masse, both with renewed interest in parting ways with their cash and with the acute need to replace their aging phones, will we increasingly see them opt for cheaper, functionality-thin feature phones, or will smartphones continue at remarkable rates to entice the casual caller and the prosumer, the Luddite octogenarian and the tech savvy preteen?
I’m not a betting man, but my money is on the latter. What do you think?
May 27, 2009
Consumers buy more smartphones than companies do. Therefore “personal” buyers are more important than “business” buyers to the smartphone manufacturers of the world. Check out their marketing … it’s all about lifestyle, media, consumer apps. Even RIM is talking more about Facebook than Exchange these days. Enterprise influence must be fading. Seems like a logical conclusion.
Except I think it’s wrong.
There is a hidden subsidy out there.
I buy a phone because I love it. Which means I want to use it as much as I can, for home and work. Which also means there is a good chance my company is going to end up paying for at least part of it.
This “enterprise subsidy,” especially for data plans, makes the growth of the smartphone industry more dependent that we’ve thought on the preferences and expense policies of employers. How much of the ongoing service revenue of the smartphone market is really being subsidized by companies, not individuals? If it’s a big number, shouldn’t corporate IT be getting a lot more love from smartphone manufacturers and service providers?
Personally, I want a great-looking phone with an awesome camera. I want to use it for media AND email. And I want my company to pick up the tab. How about you?
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